Our shrinking population

SCOTLAND’s population keeps on falling. At the present rate of decline, it will have dipped below five million by 2010, ten years earlier than previously thought.

The assumption tends to be that Scotland is shrinking because people are leaving. But John Randall, the Registrar General, took pains to explode that myth yesterday. What demographers call "natural decrease" - an excess of deaths over births - is having more of an effect than emigration, he said.

Scotland’s birth rate is the lowest in the UK and among the lowest in Europe. The number of births registered last year was the smallest ever recorded.

Why us? Researchers struggle to explain it, citing trends that apply equally to other northern European countries. They mention higher education, the rising numbers of women who work, and the move towards having children later in life. In an essay commissioned by Mr Randall, academics from St Andrews speculate that economic gloom, lack of affordable childcare and slow progress towards sex equality may be affecting Scotland in particular. But they also pinpoint "a rising tide of individualism" that favours consumerism and enjoyment over marriage and family.

So why worry, if people are making a personal choice not to reproduce?

One problem is that the country is turning middle-aged. Half of Scotland’s population is over the age of 39, and the proportion of pensioners will be soon be higher than in England, Wales or Northern Ireland. That will mean big pension costs and big demands on the NHS.

One answer is to adopt a positive and welcoming attitude to newcomers with the skills and energy the country needs. But studies suggest that even increased immigration would not be enough to offset ageing and population decline.

What can be done? We are unlikely to go the way of Singapore, where preferential housing and schooling go to those with big families. There is certainly scope for more help with childcare, but the best fertility policy would be a buoyant economy, making Scotland an attractive place in which to live and raise children.