Carl Bildt: Ukraine must not falter from EU path

THERE is little doubt that the embarrassing spectacle of the trial of former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko - and her recent arrest on contempt charges during the proceedings - is causing great damage to her country. And there is little doubt that how Ukraine develops will be of great importance for Europe's future.

Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 ignited the hope of a new wave of democratic reforms in the countries to the east of the European Union. Soon, however, those forces that feared losing power in this vast and important region began a determined counter-offensive.

Nonetheless, Ukraine continued to stumble in a European direction, preserving important parts of the gains made in 2004 - the 2010 comeback of president Viktor Yanukovich was essentially the result of a free and fair election.

It took some time, but Mr Yanukovich's determination to press on with the European integration efforts begun by his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, has become increasingly clear - in the face of repeated calls (and sometimes thinly veiled threats) by Russia to join its customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Indeed, tension with Russia could well escalate towards the end of the year, because Ukraine's foreign-policy orientation is of clear consequence to the Kremlin.

Negotiations for an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which includes far-reaching provisions for trade and regulatory integration, are well advanced, and could even be concluded this year. The agreement could become a model for similar agreements with other countries belonging to the EU's Eastern Partnership - Georgia and Moldova are lined up to start similar negotiations.

Ukraine, reasonably enough, wants this agreement to be accompanied by an acknowledgment of its European destiny, and by clear steps towards reciprocal visa-free travel. Such an acknowledgement could be seen as formal recognition of the fact that membership of the EU remains a long-term option for Ukraine.

All of that has been put in jeopardy by Ms Tymoshenko's trial. Few people believe that any of the charges against Ms Tymoshenko would stand the slightest chance of being upheld in a Western court; it all smacks of a politically directed attempt by Mr Yanukovich and his supporters to rid themselves of a powerful opponent before the next election.

Together with other similar cases, these trials raise serious questions about Ukraine's judicial system and law enforcement agencies.

Negotiations on the EU association agreement should proceed - this is an issue of strategic importance to Europe - but subsequent steps will inevitably depend on Ukraine's commitment to the values and principles underpinning European integration.

If the situation continues, even Ukraine's closest friends in Europe will find it difficult to make the case for a deepening of relations. Ms Tymoshenko's trial, and how she is treated by the Ukrainian authorities, must not only be fair, but must also be seen to be fair.

Ukraine's moves towards the EU reflect its efforts to modernise and reform its economy. Indeed, it could develop into a mini-China, placing massive manufacturing capacity next to the global economy's largest integrated market. And Ukraine's potential as an agricultural producer is equally impressive.

Yet Ukraine is currently struggling to meet the conditions of its IMF assistance programme; its parliament watered down a proposal for pension reform to the point that it borders on useless, and repeated promises to stop subsidising wasteful energy consumption through low gas prices have not been honoured.

Ukraine deserves a secure and prosperous future as a member of Europe's family - but the show trial of Yulia Tymoshenko risks turning it into an estranged cousin.

• Carl Bildt is foreign minister of Sweden