Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election is a major turning point for Scottish politics – Peter Kellner

While voters are still split evenly over independence, a growing number see this as a long-term aspiration and want politicians who will focus on the NHS, education, and the economy

Michael Shanks can look forward not just to arriving in Westminster as Rutherglen’s new MP but, unlike many winners of dramatic by-elections, remaining an MP for some years to come. This is partly because of the size of his victory, but also because he enters parliament at a time when politics across Scotland is on the turn.

The battle, not just between the parties but the forces of nationalism and unionism, is often depicted as a roughly 50-50 contest between two fierce and solid tribes. In truth, the boundaries have always been porous, and new research for the Tony Blair Institute finds them more porous than ever. The SNP is facing a greater threat than at any time in its 16 years in charge at Holyrood.

An Opinium survey conducted last month in Scotland for the Institute found that:

• when asked which should be the three top priorities, from a list of ten, of Britain’s next government, 68 per cent said improving the NHS. It’s the clear winner, followed by better schools (33 per cent) and increasing economic growth (31 per cent). Granting the right to hold a new independence referendum came seventh (20 per cent). Fewer than half of SNP supporters (47 per cent) listed this as one of their top three priorities.
• when asked directly when Indyref2 should be held, just 41 per cent of SNP supporters said “as soon as possible”. They were outnumbered by the 47 per cent who thought it should happen only when and if it appeared likely the vote would be won.
• SNP ministers at Holyrood got low marks for the way they have run the NHS in Scotland and tackled the problems of housing, poverty and drug abuse.
• Humza Yousaf is far less popular than his predecessors, Alex Salmond and Nicolas Sturgeon, used to be. His net rating – the percentage holding a favourable view, less those saying unfavourable – is minus 15. (Anas Sarwar, his Labour opponent, does slightly better, on minus nine.)

Overall, a picture emerges of a three-way division in the Scottish electorate: 25-30 per cent of fervent nationalists for whom independence matters more than anything else; a similar number of committed unionists; and 40-50 per cent in between: voters with views about Scotland’s constitutional future, but who now care more about day-to-day matters like healthcare, education, jobs and prices.

The SNP’s great success in its glory years was to persuade a large slice of the electorate that such problems could not be solved until Scotland took complete control of its own affairs. The 2014 referendum made independence the dominant controversy in Scottish politics. It remained so for some time afterwards and propelled the SNP to its astonishing result in the 2015 general election eight months later, when it won 56 out of 59 seats.

That view is on the wane. It’s not that support for independence has declined: Scotland remains a 50-50 country. But, for many Scots, independence is now a long-term dream rather than an immediate necessity. For now, other questions matter more, and fewer voters think the SNP has all the answers. The Rutherglen result means that Scottish Labour has clawed its way back to first base. For the first time in nine years, it is once again relevant.

Peter Kellner is a journalist, pollster and former chair of YouGov