Analysis: All eyes on Saudi royal family as change envelops the Arab world

THE death of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan sets the stage for an eventual generational shift in the ageing leadership of the world’s top oil exporter, even if King Abdullah picks 77-year-old Prince Nayef to succeed him.

At stake is the direction of a country attempting to reconcile its conservative traditions with the needs of a modern economy and a young, increasingly outward-looking population.

Saudi Arabia, which holds profound influence over Muslims through its guardianship of Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, faces turbulence in its neighbours and a confrontation with regional rival Iran.

King Abdullah appears set to appoint veteran interior minister Prince Nayef as crown prince and heir, but his choice of a defence minister to replace Sultan, who died in New York on Saturday, may signal how the conservative Islamic state manages the transition to its future leaders.

King Abdullah, Sultan and Nayef have run the country since the late King Fahd fell ill in 1995, but the monarch is in his late eighties and has spent three months abroad this year recovering from a back problem that again required surgery last week.

He remains firmly in control of the kingdom, but the focus will increasingly fall on Nayef and some younger princes.

Chief among them is Prince Salman, the Riyadh governor who is a full brother of Sultan and Nayef and is seen as next most important in a ruling family that has prized seniority since it was founded by King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud in 1932.

If the enigmatic Nayef becomes crown prince, his character will shape for years to come the way Saudi Arabia tackles a host of challenges at a time of unprecedented change, both for the kingdom and the wider Middle East.

To Saudi liberals, Nayef represents the stern face of the conservative establishment: opposed to any moves towards democracy or women’s rights.

However, former diplomats, journalists and royal family members paint a softer portrait of a man at the centre of Saudi politics for over three decades.

Two possible candidates for the defence ministry are Prince Khaled bin Sultan and Prince Salman.

The choice of a son or grandson of Ibn Saud will indicate how quickly the Saud family plans to transfer power to a younger generation of princes