Terry Murden: Salmond's stats may be built on shaky foundations

Michael Levack, chief executive of the Scottish Building Federation, is questioning official stats, trotted out this week by First Minister Alex Salmond, showing a 10 per cent rise in construction industry jobs over the past year. Levack wants to know how this figure can be reconciled with data his organisation has obtained from the UK Insolvency Service showing a 66 per cent increase in the number of Scottish building firms going bust, We have been here before. Last October we highlighted similar discrepancies, again prompted by serious doubts from Levack. At that time, second-quarter GDP figures (April-June 2010) grew by a better than expected 1.3 per cent, powered by a 10.4 per cent surge in construction. But Levack said the year-on-year figure showed a decline of 3.2 per cent and he challenged finance minister John Swinney's assertion that the recovery was being led by the construction industry. Nine months on and the construction industry isn't exactly turning work away. Building firms continue to go bust and lay off workers. Levack says the government should be applauded for its efforts to support the industry but this ability to turn bust to boom by using some clearly versatile statistical gymnastics is proving a major concern to his members. It should also make the rest of us feel a little nervous about what lies beneath the official data. Lawrie's four-year plan for Misys is bearing fruit INVESTORS in banking software company Misys look like getting the exit they were promised by chief executive Mike Lawrie when he began a four-year plan to reshape the company along with its biggest shareholder ValueAct, which holds 20 per cent. It is a much smaller company now after share buy-backs and the disposal of assets including its healthcare division. For much of the recent transformational period, Misys has been subject to takeover speculation and yesterday's confirmation that an unnamed bidder had emerged led analysts to focus on US firms including Sungard, FIS Global and Fiserv as likely candidates. Interest is also expected from India where Infosys and HCL are strong players, and from Swiss competitor Temenos. The shares were up 9 per cent in early trade, pushing them well above the 400p level at which some of Lawrie's options will vest. Analysts are encouraged by progress made in restructuring the business and believe that shareholders should hold out in expectation of a take out price as high as 460p.Market leaders can live with less dramatic growth ONE of the biggest problems facing successful companies is that everybody expects the ride to get faster and more exciting. No one factors in any slowing down. Shares in the Scottish temporary power generator Aggreko have enjoyed a bullish 12 months as the company pulled in orders from major sporting events and emergency situations around the world. But a number of factors have put a bit of a brake on progress, notably the arrival of a potential rival and the weakening of the US dollar. The challenge from Florida-based APR, now owned by pizza and beers baron Hugh Osmond, was swatted aside by Aggreko chief executive Rupert Soames, who pointed out that he'd been competing with the company for the best part of a decade. As for the weak dollar, it would eat into the bottom line and thereby counter some of the growth expected. However, the flow of orders remains strong and Soames has announced an acceleration of capital expenditure in what is regarded as a sure sign of confidence. While currency fluctuations may check the shares' rapid growth, the change of ownership at APR should offer no immediate threat to Aggreko, which is comfortably the market leader. Brokers remain generally positive, with Seymour Pierce raising its target price from 1,900p to 2,100p.